The Vast Majority of People Checking Machines are Not APs

[Note: This was originally a forum rant, but I wanted to post it here publicly.]

I just wanted to put this message out here because I’ve been getting a lot of comments referencing how other hustlers are taking plays. For example, “hustlers at my local take Rich Little Piggies at 16 blue or Buffalo Link at 1100.” Another common response is, “If you wait until the number gets to X, then you will never find a play. Therefore, you should take the play earlier.” This kind of thinking is a race to the bottom.

The vast majority of people you see checking machines inside casinos are not APs. I don’t want to get caught up in definitions—by “not an AP”, I just mean that they aren’t actually taking home a profit at the end of the day. Most hustlers are scavenging/vulturing obvious plays and then gambling away that money on high variance garbage. They get tired of walking around searching for actual plays. So they end up getting bored and just want to take a shot at something. Or they play just for meaningless status/comps. I know people who lose thousands of dollars but then brag about how they got a free hotel room and a lobster dinner.

Here is something to consider—what percentage of APs do you see tracking plays? When they sit down at a high variance machine, are they taking a photo or inputting an entry in an app? Almost no one I see does that. They just sit down, put their money and card in and immediately start spinning away. I talk to a lot of hustlers inside casinos and one topic I always bring up is tracking plays. I’m shocked how often people tell me they don’t track anything—not even win/loss per casino visit.

I don’t think it is worthwhile to track every single play, especially on quick/obvious setups. But any kind of high variance/long play needs to be tracked. Otherwise, you will have no idea if you are profitable. You might remember that huge handpay you got when you hit the grand, but you are going to forget all the times you lost thousands.

A huge part of the AP scene is knowing who is legit and who is just a degen. If you are going to exchange info with someone, then you better know you can trust them. There is so much misinformation and rumors spreading around that aren’t based on anything. People will just share stuff because they heard someone else say it.

I also wanted to add some of what you see other APs doing is card building. Card builders will take plays knowing they are losing money to complete a lucrative card build. This can be profitable, but you really need to know what you are doing and what kind of offers you can get at that specific shop. If you are copying what you see card builders doing without building a fresh card, then you will get killed.

TL;DR Just because you see other hustlers playing something, doesn’t mean it is a profitable play.